12 November 2025

As Russia continues to increase drone and missile attacks against Ukraine's infrastructure, the assaults may be overwhelming the Ukrainian military's ability to stop them.

Data released by the Ukrainian Air Force regarding bombardments in October show that just under 80 percent of Russian drone launches were stopped (4,242 defenses against 5,312 drone attacks), and suppression of Russian missiles dropped to 54 percent (146 defenses against 270 missile attacks).

Though interception rates of airborne threats are not the only factor in assessing strengths and weaknesses in the Russia-Ukraine war, the slipping success percentages are concerning. For example, during rhe early months of 2025, Ukraine was able to stop 90 percent of Russia drones from reaching their targets. However, that rate dropped to 85 percent in August and September. October's 80 percent interception rate is the lowest of the year so far.

Accurate data on defenses—whether Russian or Ukrainian—is difficult to verfiy, however, as each country may inflate the effectiveness of their "air sentries," and comprehensive info is also compromised as each side provides overall statistics, rather than detailed reports of specific defensive actions.

The reasons for Ukraine's dropping interception rates are hard to pinpoint, but Russia's increased drone attacks, the Ukrainian military's ebbing supply of munitions, and even the weather could all contribute. But one thing is certain—Russia is expanding its focus on crippling energy and other Ukrainian infrastructure as winter begins to descend. Already, Ukrainian citizens are dealing with massive blackouts as energy production in some regions has been reduced to near zero, due to Russian attacks.

"These days, in most regions, repair crews, power engineers, and utility services are virtually working around the clock," reported Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend. "The Russians have increased their striking power."

In addition, Zelenskyy has warned over and over again that his country's air defense umbrella is not up to the task of taking down Russian drones and missiles, as he asks for more more Western aid. 

Ukraine's most sophisticated interception missiles can cost $4 million each, while Russia's Shahed strike drones have a price tag of around $20,000 each. As a result, Ukraine has been developing far more affordable electronic drone-defense technology to meet the challenges of its diminishing munitions capability—a viable strategy, as Russian drone attacks in 2025 numbered approximately 4,400 per month.